McCain's Next Challenge: Motivating Republicans to Vote For Him

In the weeks since John McCain secured the Republican Party’s Presidential nomination, he has had the luxury of being able to float under the radar. The bitter fight for the Democratic Party’s nomination has taken center stage, and McCain has used the time quietly attempting to build more support for his November bid. The media has focused the lion’s share of its coverage on the nasty, yet compelling struggle between Senators Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, and McCain has often appeared to be the beneficiary of the Democratic Primary campaign. Eventually, however, a nominee will emerge from the other party’s battle and McCain will have to begin making a case for his election. And it’s unlikely that he will have an easy time of it.

It wasn’t long ago that John McCain seemed to come out of nowhere to cruise to victory in the Republican Primaries. Running against a handful of younger, more dynamic candidates like Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney, Fred Thompson and Mike Huckabee, Senator McCain was largely a forgotten man in the run-up to the Iowa Caucuses in early January. The additional presence of more principled conservative candidates like Tom Tancredo, Duncan Hunter and Ron Paul further underlined the chasm between Senator McCain and the rest of the Republican Party.

Having routinely clashed with the conservative base of the Party and having briefly flirted with the possibility of joining the Democratic Party to serve as John Kerry’s 2004 running mate, McCain was not considered a serious contender for the 2008 Republican nomination. But as the other contenders faltered, failing to increase their followings beyond loyal niche groups, McCain quietly set about winning primary elections in New Hampshire and South Carolina. McCain’s early primary victories were largely due to the votes of moderate Republicans and of “crossovers”, registered Independents and Democrats who were permitted to substitute their Independent or Democratic ballots for Republican ballots. After McCain pulled off a momentous victory in Florida, largely on the strength of an eleventh-hour endorsement from the State’s Governor, Charlie Crist, his unlikely nomination became inevitable. But Senator McCain’s victory, and the manner in which it was secured, left a sour taste in the mouths of many Republicans. Some even vowed to sit out the election in November rather than vote to elect him.

Having clashed with conservative Republicans on a number of issues, the moderate Republican Senator from Arizona has earned himself the reputation as something of a “maverick”. A celebrated Prisoner of War, Senator McCain has won universal praise from fellow Republicans for his heroic service in Vietnam. However, his frequent splits from the Party on issues like illegal immigration, tax policy, judicial nominations and the environment have aroused suspicion and even hostility among those who acknowledge his earlier sacrifices. With the seemingly endless Democratic Primary contest inching ever closer to a resolution, an important question will reemerge: will John McCain be able to motivate enough voters to secure his Presidential election in November?

Soon after it became obvious that McCain would be the nominee, signs were emerging that the answer might have been yes. In an effort to weaken his general election credentials, the New York Times, who had endorsed his nomination, began floating unsubstantiated allegations about Senator McCain’s private life. Short of creating the kind of scandal that would further alienate McCain’s Republican critics, the articles were instead seen as cynical attacks on a decent man. Republicans who had been offended not just by the manner of McCain’s victory but by the aggressive, condescending attitude of his hardcore supporters suddenly became sympathetic to the Republican nominee in the wake of these partisan attacks. Some had even come to terms with the prospect of voting for him in the general election because he was now seen to be the least objectionable of the remaining candidates.

Meanwhile, the battle between the two Democratic Party candidates has become as tedious as it has been lengthy. While Howard Dean and the DNC are scrambling to bring an end to the Primary contest so that the Party can refocus its energy on winning the general election, they have reason to be optimistic. Voter registration in the Democratic Party has increased significantly and the party is expected to gain seats in the House and Senate no matter who gets elected President. Despite taking a few political hits recently, Barack Obama is now expected to win the Democratic nomination. He also appears to have significant coattails. And while Obama is an extremely partisan liberal like Hillary Clinton, his likeable personality suggests that he is unlikely to be as polarizing a figure as the former First Lady. This could be very bad news for Senator McCain.

McCain’s problem is pretty straightforward. Currently, he is unable to motivate people to go out and vote for him. Despite his Party’s nomination, he is a relatively unpopular candidate. On the whole, Conservative Republicans do not trust John McCain. So far, he has been unable, or, more likely, unwilling to contrast his views with those of the Democrats. If he fails to draw a better distinction between himself and his future opponent, he runs the risk of losing the election due to voter indifference.

Unfortunately for McCain, what helped him win the nomination is what could lose him the election. His pseudo-populist positions on issues like taxes, immigration, environmental policy and campaign financing are not unlike those of his eventual opponent, so it’s going to take some convincing to motivate principled Republicans to go to the trouble of voting for him. He is either going to have to change some of his “Straight Talk Express” positions or pray that he faces a candidate less popular than he is.

As it currently stands, McCain’s best chance at victory is a Hillary Clinton nomination. Many Obama supporters would be as angry at a Clinton nomination as Republican supporters are at McCain’s, so they may be inclined to stay away in droves. Meanwhile, those Republicans unmotivated to vote for McCain may find incentive to show up just to vote against Clinton. If Obama becomes the Democratic nominee, however, McCain will have to find a way to appeal to the Conservatives he’s cast aside. He’s going to have to ditch the job-killing, radical environmentalist “cap and trade” agenda, admit to making a mistake in opposing President Bush’s tax cut proposals and stop pandering to the corrupt Mexican Government by trying to shove amnesty bills down our throats. If he does this, he may have a ghost of a chance. If he doesn’t, God help us.